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The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
Academic

The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers MAR 4, 2026

We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes–based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations,…

By: Tamar den Besten (opens in a new tab), Diego Känzig (opens in a new tab)

Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement
The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty
Academic

Americans Informed About the Distributional Effects of Republicans’ Budget Bill Overwhelmingly Oppose It (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers JUN 25, 2025

Republicans in the Senate are currently considering the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which, if enacted, would be the most regressive U.S. tax and budget law in at least the…

By: Jacob S. Hacker, Patrick Sullivan (opens in a new tab)

Economic Equity & Opportunity Household Economic Security Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement Taxation
Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registers
Academic

Monetary Policy, Labor Income Redistribution and the Credit Channel: Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee and Credit Registers (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers NOV 17, 2022

We document the redistributive effects of monetary policy on labor market outcomes via the credit channel. For identification, we exploit matched administrative datasets in Portugal – employee-employer and credit registers…

By: Martina Jasova (opens in a new tab), Caterina Mendicino (opens in a new tab), Ettore Panetti (opens in a new tab), José-Luis Peydró (opens in a new tab), Dominik Supera (opens in a new tab)

Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement Taxation
Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment
Academic

Understanding Climate Damages: Consumption versus Investment (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers APR 22, 2022

Existing climate-economy models use aggregate damage functions to model the effects of climate change. This approach assumes climate change has equal impacts on the productivity of firms that produce consumption…

By: Gregory P. Casey (opens in a new tab), Stephie Fried (opens in a new tab), Matthew Gibson (opens in a new tab)

Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement Taxation
Falling Rates and Rising Superstars
Academic

Falling Rates and Rising Superstars (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers JAN 7, 2022

Do low interest rates contribute to the rise in market concentration? Using data on firm financials and high frequency monetary policy shocks, we find that falling interest rates disproportionately benefit…

By: Thomas Kroen (opens in a new tab), Ernest Liu (opens in a new tab), Atif Mian (opens in a new tab), Amir Sufi (opens in a new tab)

Competition & Economic Dynamism Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement
Diverse Policy Committees Can Reach Underrepresented Groups
Academic

Diverse Policy Committees Can Reach Underrepresented Groups (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers SEP 16, 2021

In a randomized control trial that varies the salience of female and minority representation on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee, the FOMC, we test whether diversity affects how Fed…

By: Francesco D’Acunto (opens in a new tab), Andreas Fuster (opens in a new tab), Michael Weber (opens in a new tab)

Economic Equity & Opportunity Labor, Wages & Worker Power Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement Taxation
Tax Refund Uncertainty: Evidence and Welfare Implications
Academic

Tax Refund Uncertainty: Evidence and Welfare Implications (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers APR 8, 2021

Transfers paid through annual tax refunds are a large but uncertain source of income for poor households. We document that low-income tax-filers have substantial subjective uncertainty about these refunds. We…

By: Sydnee Caldwell (opens in a new tab), Scott Nelson (opens in a new tab), Daniel Waldinger (opens in a new tab)

Economic Equity & Opportunity Household Economic Security Labor, Wages & Worker Power Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement Taxation
Whose News? Class-Biased Economic Reporting in the United States
Academic

Whose News? Class-Biased Economic Reporting in the United States (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers MAR 3, 2020

There is substantial evidence that voters’ choices are shaped by assessments of the state of the economy and that these assessments, in turn, are influenced by the news. But how…

By: Alan M. Jacobs (opens in a new tab), J. Scott Matthews (opens in a new tab), Timothy Hicks (opens in a new tab), Eric Merkley (opens in a new tab)

Economic Equity & Opportunity Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement
Targeted Debt Relief and the Origins of Financial Distress: Experimental Evidence from Distressed Credit Card Borrowers
Academic

Targeted Debt Relief and the Origins of Financial Distress: Experimental Evidence from Distressed Credit Card Borrowers (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers DEC 4, 2019

We study the drivers of financial distress using a large-scale field experiment that offered randomly selected borrowers a combination of (i) immediate payment reductions to target short-run liquidity constraints and…

By: Will Dobbie (opens in a new tab), Jae Song (opens in a new tab)

Economic Equity & Opportunity Household Economic Security Labor, Wages & Worker Power Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement
Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Academic

Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers NOV 19, 2019

We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel…

By: Andreas Fagereng (opens in a new tab), Luigi Guiso (opens in a new tab), Davide Malacrino (opens in a new tab), Luigi Pistaferri (opens in a new tab)

Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement Taxation
Disability and distress: The effect of disability programs on financial outcomes
Academic

Disability and distress: The effect of disability programs on financial outcomes (opens in a new tab)

Working Papers MAR 26, 2019

We provide the first evidence on the relationship between disability programs and markers of financial distress: bankruptcy, foreclosure, eviction, and home sale. Rates of these adverse financial events peak around…

By: Manasi Deshpande (opens in a new tab), Tal Gross (opens in a new tab), Yalun Su (opens in a new tab)

Household Economic Security Macroeconomics & Economic Measurement
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